There are over 20,000 workforce training providers in the U.S., yet little is known about the long-term impacts of these programs on employment, earnings, and other economic outcomes. Such limited evidence prevents policymakers and practitioners from investing and scaling the highest potential programs and precludes learners and jobseekers from identifying workforce program pathways that could be most useful for their career growth and long-term mobility.

The Social Finance Institute and Opportunity Insights (OI) are collaborating with training providers across the U.S. to address these evidence gaps and provide new information on workforce program effectiveness. Using an innovative matching estimation methodology pioneered by OI and access to anonymized administrative data, this work analyzes the causal impacts of workforce programs on long-term economic outcomes of learners.

Project Approach

An Innovative Methodology

Large-scale administrative data is used to identify comparable individuals who did not participate in non-degree workforce training, enabling estimates of the economic impact of these programs.

OI uses novel matching methods to link program data with anonymized Census and Internal Revenue Service data to estimate long-term economic outcomes for program participants relative to a synthetic comparison group. This methodology produces program impact estimates that are as reliable as those from randomized control trials (RCTs) – widely considered the gold standard for evaluating causal effects. Unlike prior matching approaches, this approach has been validated against RCT evidence, demonstrating that using broader data resources allows for more precise estimation. Through this project, OI will estimate the impacts of training programs, including examining outcomes on employment and wage gains by sectors, program type, and learner characteristics.

Data Partners

Using this methodology, we are partnering with training providers and states on this project to estimate the outcomes of their participants:

• Training Providers: We have partnered with a diverse mix of education and training providers to estimate the economic trajectories of their participants, including for-profit and non-profit organizations that offer short-term programs, community colleges, and publicly funded workforce training programs. Through this study, these providers will gain an understanding of the program characteristics that lead to stronger outcomes. They will also get the chance to share learnings with peer organizations through a community of practice.
• States: We are piloting partnerships with several state governments to broaden the universe of workforce development programs included in the study, using participant data from non-degree workforce development programs for which state agencies collect individual-level data on enrollees. These state leaders will gain key insights on the effectiveness of the programs they oversee, share information in a state peer-to-peer community of practice, and receive capacity-building support to explore options for adapting this matching estimation method using state-level data such as unemployment insurance wage records.

Project Objectives

This project will bring insights directly to jobseekers, policymakers, and training providers to deliver better public information on workforce development programs.

Scientific- and Policy-Relevant Learning Questions

This collaboration will answer a series of questions both to enhance scientific understanding about workforce pathways and to spur action through direct policy applications.

• What types of training programs lead to positive economic mobility outcomes?
• Are certain types of individuals better served by training providers? What key factors improve economic outcomes for different types of learners?
• What is the return on investment for training programs by industry/sector?

Contributions to the Workforce Development Knowledge Base

Ultimately, this work will provide expanded knowledge about the impacts of workforce training programs and the models that best serve learners. These insights will enable training providers to improve learner outcomes and empower states to make data-driven funding decisions and provide information to the public.

This project is also designed to contribute to a larger body of related work currently underway in other initiatives that seek to improve understanding about the returns to workforce training programs, using several different methods to measure workforce development outcomes. The Social Finance Institute is dedicated to collaboration with others in this field and seeking opportunities for shared learning to maximize the impact of this work.

For More Information

If you are interested in learning more or in participating in this work, as either a data partner or thought leader in the field, please reach out to institute@socialfinance.org and data@opportunityinsights.org.